An first estimate of vivendis value
I worked on an excel spreadsheet to get a better overview about vivendi and its various assets; this is how far I have come jet:
Cash and Assets (including the listed ones) are worth about 10,3 Billion €. This excludes the operating parts Chanal+ and Universal Music. The numbers in the spread sheet are EBITA, net income for vivendi is around 697 million €.
Vivendi’s market capitalisation today is around 25,1 billion €* (note: tomorrow is vivendi’s ex-dividend day)
market capitalisation – cash and other holdings = “Rest Enterprice-Value”
25,1 – 10,3 = 14,8 €B
So the continued core operations, which are basically chanal+ and Universal Music are worth approximately 14,8 billion € at the moment. This looks not so interesting to me considering that they generate around 0,697 billion € in yearly income which translates in an PE-Ratio of 21,2.
But then on the other side it seems that famous Investor John Malone whom I appreciate has made a bit for Universal Music Group of “somewhere upwards of $8bn” and that guy knows a thing or two about the content/media business. So maybe 14,8 €B for all that content is not that much? And Softbank also made a bid. (link to http://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com)
note to myself: vivendi sold out its 20% stake in Numericable SFR, that stock today trades around 52W-low. Could be that selling 20% of a stock has depressed the stock price. Maybe this is worth a look?
disclosure: no position in vivendi at that time
*number from ariva.de